Risk management framework for housing development appraisal in Nigeria
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Date
2021
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Abstract
Significant focus has been put in recent times on assessing risk in housing development investment through assessment studies. Most investors and developers have accepted the fact that a single definitive figure cannot reflect the value of a property. Therefore, the evaluator must bear in mind the different degrees of risk and uncertainty involved in forecasting. Thus, professional clarifications are essential if the valuer is to help determine the profitability of investment in a transparent manner. This study focuses on developing a framework that will serve as a guide for incorporating risk management in housing development appraisal in Abuja, Nigeria. Accordingly, there are four objectives has been set up for this research which are firstly to identify the risk variables in housing development; secondly to evaluate the significant risk variables in the preparation, estimation, and performance measures; thirdly to examine the relationship between the preparation, estimation, and performance measurement activities in managing risk; and fourthly to develop a risk management framework for housing development appraisal in Nigeria. Mixed method research approach was adopted for the study to enhance the professional skills of housing development appraisal by providing a holistic view of housing development risk management. Using exploratory sequential method, the first phase entailed expert discussion and opinion via the Delphi technique by collecting data from a sample of seven experts consisting of estate surveyors, developers, and financiers to determine the risk variables that affect housing development appraisal in the preparation, estimation, and performance stages. A pilot survey was used to validate the outcome variables that were used to develop the questionnaire survey, and a total of 350 questionnaires were distributed to estate surveyors, developers, and financiers with a response rate of 69%. Using the stratified and purposive sampling technique, a total of 240 respondents were used for the analysis. Data analysis techniques utilised include: descriptive analysis using mean, percentages, and standard deviation, and inferential analysis using normality test, reliability test, validity test using Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) and Barlett’s test; factor analysis; and structural equation modelling. The measurement model revealed that, twelve factors with different sub-factors have impact on the preparation, estimation, and performance constructs of housing development appraisal, while the structural model shows a significant effect of the preparation and estimation phases on the performance of housing development appraisal by professionals in Abuja, Nigeria. The contribution of this study depicts that, the risk management framework for housing development appraisal comprised of identified risks that should be assessed at the preparation stage, monitored at the estimation stage, and controlled at the stage of performance. The framework was validated by experts to confirm its suitability, usefulness, and applicability. Among several recommendations drawn from the study, professionals should pay more attention on risk and its impact on housing development.
Description
Thesis (PhD. (Real Estate))
Keywords
Housing development, Housing--Nigeria, Housing--Prices